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Well that was sporting. Adios Afghanistan.

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Hi Rhodie Murwi Wega,

insightful contribution, but I disagree on a couple of points.

Why does China scare you?. Don't believe the hype and propaganda they spill out. We held them in Korea with the tech we had in those days, we kept them at bay in Vietnam to an extent and then the British trained the KR to fight them in Cambodia and kept them at bay. Like the USSR, 90% of it is painted rust. The PRC is one generation from the rice paddy field and with economic sanctions on a war footing would put them back there sharpish.

It is not anymore the 50s or the 60s. As you point out further down in your comment, from an economic standpoint China is much much richer than then, and have been playing a strategical long game that for us westerners, that consider a 20 years span the long term, is simply incomprehensible. The rules of this game are simple, and the goal is to outplay the western block resource wise. China owns a huge chunk of oil and metals that haven't been extracted yet, and their stock is massive. They rely a lot on export but such a type of economy is easily converted in war times to sustain the effort contrarily to countries that rely intensively in import to survive (look at most EU countries as example). Good luck denting the production capability of a nation that produces everything it needs and that has enough petrol to sustain a 1000 years war! You can put all the sanctions on them, it would be like cutting one dick to a dude that has three. And also, the "only 10% of their armed forces is in good order" is a bit old fashioned. They have nukes. They have like most superpowers technologies we don't even know that exist and anyways, to what superpower doesn't apply this same concept? If you take the US Armed Forces and don't count Marine Corps, 101 Airborne Division, Rangers, Navy Seals and Delta Forces, what have you left? Do these outfits account for 90% of the US military? Sure they have planes and a powerful navy but that goes up to a certain point. What the US we all know is great at doing is keeping the logistic lines up and running, good luck doing that during a total war scenario against China.

Also, the PRC military, as large as it is, is not battle tested. They have a one child policy and mostly all female births are either drowned at birth or given away as the male is the prized child. Start killing their men at a high rate and see the nation turn on its masters. They have already had 30 years of western lifestyle thanks to Deng Xiaoping telling them, "to earn money is glory", McDonalds, KFC, Pizzahut, western cinema, western private schools for their elite and relative success in a capitalist model, trust me Shirly, they won't want to go back to the fields any time soon. Just look at how many Chinese students make up the student body in Western Universities. No, these future leaders of China won't stand for the old Maoist doctrine this time around. They love their Iphones and gaming platforms too much.

The one-child policy has been abandoned since 2015, and in any case even when it was in forces about half the chinese population had wavers to have more than one child. Also in particular in rural areas it was never really enforced fully and many families simply didn't register the birth of the newborns if they did already have children. The 30 years of western lifestyles only apply to bigger cities and in any case not fully to those that live in those cities but work in 18 hours shifts factories where they need to wear diapers to don't disrupt the production chain. They have bubbles here and there (think of Hong Kong) but ultimately the chinese government doesn't give a flying f$ck as we have recently seen with the HK protests. About the chinese students in the west... I have met and studied with a bunch of them. Most of them come from wealthy families up in the commies party ranking and are heavily subsidized in order to study abroad. Most of them if not all will eventually return to China with at least a PhD if not a post-doctoral title from a western university; they are here to learn and steal, and in the process make very few friends and live in small chinese bubbles. Also do not underestimate the level of indoctrination these people are subject to. I had an Asian landlord couple. Both from prestigious families, worked in high profile jobs (one a nurse in a private hospital, the other a software developer for a chinese company...). They barey left their room, mostly her to go to work. I've maybe seen him twice over a 6 months period. They constantly reminded me of how Asians are much more intelligent than Europeans and also believed that Tiananmen Square never happened. It's not an if, but a when we will be in war with China, simply because over the years they have barricated themselves on the other side of the interests play field with respect to the West. And when it will happen it will be like fighting against a Nazi Germany x1000.
 
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Hi Rhodie Murwi Wega,

insightful contribution, but I disagree on a couple of points.



It is not anymore the 50s or the 60s. As you point out further down in your comment, from an economic standpoint China is much much richer than then, and have been playing a strategical long game that for us westerners, that consider a 20 years span the long term, is simply incomprehensible. The rules of this game are simple, and the goal is to outplay the western block resource wise. China owns a huge chunk of oil and metals that haven't been extracted yet, and their stock is massive. They rely a lot on export but such a type of economy is easily converted in war times to sustain the effort contrarily to countries that rely intensively in import to survive (look at most EU countries as example). Good luck denting the production capability of a nation that produces everything it needs and that has enough petrol to sustain a 1000 years war! You can put all the sanctions on them, it would be like cutting one dick to a dude that has three. And also, the "only 10% of their armed forces is in good order" is a bit old fashioned. They have nukes. They have like most superpowers technologies we don't even know that exist and anyways, to what superpower doesn't apply this same concept? If you take the US Armed Forces and don't count Marine Corps, 101 Airborne Division, Rangers, Navy Seals and Delta Forces, what have you left? Do these outfits account for 90% of the US military? Sure they have planes and a powerful navy but that goes up to a certain point. What the US we all know is great at doing is keeping the logistic lines up and running, good luck doing that during a total war scenario against China.



The one-child policy has been abandoned since 2015, and in any case even when it was in forces about half the chinese population had wavers to have more than one child. Also in particular in rural areas it was never really enforced fully and many families simply didn't register the birth of the newborns if they did already have children. The 30 years of western lifestyles only apply to bigger cities and in any case not fully to those that live in those cities but work in 18 hours shifts factories where they need to wear diapers to don't disrupt the production chain. They have bubbles here and there (think of Hong Kong) but ultimately the chinese government doesn't give a flying f$ck as we have recently seen with the HK protests. About the chinese students in the west... I have met and studied with a bunch of them. Most of them come from wealthy families up in the commies party ranking and are heavily subsidized in order to study abroad. Most of them if not all will eventually return to China with at least a PhD if not a post-doctoral title from a western university; they are here to learn and steal, and in the process make very few friends and live in small chinese bubbles. Also do not underestimate the level of indoctrination these people are subject to. I had an Asian landlord couple. Both from prestigious families, worked in high profile jobs (one a nurse in a private hospital, the other a software developer for a chinese company...). They barey left their room, mostly her to go to work. I've maybe seen him twice over a 6 months period. They constantly reminded me of how Asians are much more intelligent than Europeans and also believed that Tiananmen Square never happened. It's not an if, but a when we will be in war with China, simply because over the years they have barricated themselves on the other side of the interests play field with respect to the West. And when it will happen it will be like fighting against a Nazi Germany x1000.
Morning Fabrizio, you make some valued points. If it ever comes to it the PRC will be a menacing enemy, no doubt about it. Numbers alone are on their side. The Nuke argument in my eyes in nil and void as we too have a nuclear arsenal that eclipses theirs ten fold and the early delivery systems and shields to cut them down. The Russians are not going to allow the Chinese as much air as you would imagine, in their view the Chinese are the new kid on the block in regards to a rising super power. The one child policy does very much effect the thinking of the Chinese leadership and its effect on the people, it may of ended in 2015 but the knock on effect will last 40 years or more.

Its interesting you mentioned the tech they have that we are not aware of, again, I would put caution on that threat, we know that our tech and reach is far greater than theirs, how do we measure that? by the intensity of their clandestine activity to steal it. It's not just skunk works and DARPA in the game in the West, there are many others than don't even have public domains.

As for the Chinese students, yes they are mainly rich Chinese kids, party member and high officials kids that are here to learn, invest their parents looted or funnelled money into housing and investments and no doubt steal what tech and intel they can. They are also useless in regards to warfare. I cannot see their merit other than those students working on secure tech programs that might give their people a level playing field in non classified projects.

As for their reserves, well you are right. They are buying up half of Africa, their coal and minerals come largely from Australia for example but all that ends in the event of war. Their so called allies in Africa and around the globe will dry up in a heart beat. Why? because the reality on the ground is the Africans despise the Chinese today much more than they do the white colonial powers.

From Mozambique to Nigeria, I hear the same bloody thing, they hate the buggers with a passion. Happy to take their money and roads yes but they see their lands being sold and leased and they don't like it. Australia being apart of the Pacific treaty with Japan and the USA and apart of the Commonwealth will of course stop trade and nationalise all Chinese assets in the Country. Same with all partners in the region.

Their telecommunications, hacking and net warfare will be their greatest strike force for preemptive assault followed by manpower. The great thing about China, like us in Afghan, is that we stick out like tits on a bull. You can't hide in the crowd of friendlies. This will be our advantage and theirs its a matter of who is battle hardened and tested and who has the wherewithal to get the job done swiftly. 90% of our bulk might be reserve forces, support staff and non combatants but they are tested in combat and making sure all these critical facilities are delivered under fire. The Chinese are not.

Fabrizio, this is all academic my bro. As you are probably well aware, if it ever came to a land invasion style war with China, the World is going to end in bits. Their psychotic belief in the party will no doubt end up with one of their zealous Generals pushing the button on Taiwan, that means we will have to drop our warheads on theirs. Probably, Nanjing, Xiamen, Fuzhou and leave the main cities like we did in Japan. It will be a calamity the likes of which we have never seen before. True horror.

I lived in China for two years in the mid 2000's and speak Mandarin, I know their CCTV propaganda machine well and some of their (now retired) regional senior officials, I actually like their people a lot and their way of life, its a blend of west meets east in most of their developed hubs. The cops don't carry guns and its a great place to party. 90% of their working class lives 20 miles from the Eastern coast. Thats a rich target area.

I believe the Chinese want to continue their existence in peace but more and more, demand the West and others respect and appreciate them more rather than using them as the boogie man every time our foreign policy goes south. Afghan being a prime example. It went to shit and now we are pushing the China threat in our void. Its the fear machine doing what it does best brother. For the likes of me and you Fabrizio, we have to sit back and suck eggs mate.

Fingers crossed it never comes to it but if it does, have courage and faith in the fact that we are the old war horse, trained, battle hardened and most important of all, have the winning argument on our side. Reason is everything. Communism is just another form of Fascism where the few judge and murder the masses in the name of the party. That will never win out. Human nature will figure it out in the end. Cheers bro.
 
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Fabrizio and Rhodie,
I'm enjoying your discussion. Your posts are really interesting, we haven't had a lot of quality conversations like yours in awhile now. It seems that forum has liven up.
just nice to see.
👌👍
lol, thats good mate, I love a good educated yarn with a chap who knows his subject matter. Fabrizio has some valid points and its great to share hey. Cheers bud. Have a good one.
 
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lol, thats good mate, I love a good educated yarn with a chap who knows his subject matter. Fabrizio has some valid points and its great to share hey. Cheers bud. Have a good one.

I think you know more than me considering also you spent time in China. But good conversation none the less! My only concern is underestimating a potential enemy. All your points are valid.
 
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I think you know more than me considering also you spent time in China. But good conversation none the less! My only concern is underestimating a potential enemy. All your points are valid.
You are absolutely right Fabrizio, it's a fluid situation, especially in Afghan. I think the PRC will carbon copy their Africa policy in Afghan and simply buy them out. Roads, hospitals, education and so forth for minerals. They are a pretty smart bunch with Confucius and Sun Tzu at the heart of their foreign and military doctrine, no doubt about it. "it's harder for your enemy to strike you, whilst you are embracing them", this is at the heart of their thinking in regards to colonisation. They have zero interest in the betterment of the individuals of said nation unless they are in line with critical defence or Maoist ideology. Maybe we could learn a thing or two hey lol. Save a lot of money and blood.
 
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